استفاده از رویکرد فازی-دلفی در ارزیابی تناسب‌ بخشی از اراضی هوراند برای گندم آبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی‌ارشد ، گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشگاه تبریز

2 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشگاه تبریز،

3 استادیار ، مرکز آموزش عالی شهید باکری میاندوآب، دانشگاه ارومیه

4 استاد، گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

چکیده
سابقه و هدف: ارزیابی تناسب اراضی از اقدامات بنیادین مدیریت پایدار هر منطقه می‌باشد. کاستی‌ها در روش‌های سنتی ارزیابی تناسب اراضی، توجه کاربران این عرصه را به استفاده از روش‌های هوش مصنوعی و تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره معطوف نموده است. انواع زیرمجموعه‌های روش‌های ذکرشده به‌تنهایی و یا در تلفیق با یکدیگر به‌منظور بالابردن دقت روش‌‌های ارزیابی، سهولت محاسبات و دست‌یابی به نتایج جنبی مفید تاکنون مورداستفاده قرار‌گرفته‌اند. روش فازی-دلفی رویکردی از روش‌های مورد بحث است که در این مطالعه ضمن بررسی توان اراضی منطقه هوراند در تولید گندم آبی، کارایی این روش تلفیقی نیز مورد سنجش قرار گرفته است.
مواد و روش‌ها: در این مطالعه 662 هکتار از اراضی شهرستان هوراند در قالب 12 واحد اراضی انتخاب و پس از جمع‌آوری اطلاعات اقلیم، زمین‌نما و خاک، روش فازی-دلفی به‌منظور ارزیابی کیفی و کمّی تناسب اراضی برای گندم آبی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. ارزیابی کیفی با تعیین شاخص اراضی و ارزیابی کمی برمبنای تولید پیش‌بینی‌شده محاسبه شده از تلفیق تولید پتانسیل حاصل از روش پهنه‌بندی اکولوژیکی-زراعی با شاخص خاک صورت گرفت. در این راستا گزینش و تعیین وزن فاکتورهای دخیل در ارزیابی براساس نظرات خبرگان با روش دلفی انجام و با استفاده از ضریب کندال مورد اعتبارسنجی قرار گرفت. طی فازی‌سازی ویژگی‌های اراضی با تابع عضویت کندل، ماتریس ویژگی‌ها تشکیل و با ماتریس وزن‌ها ترکیب شد که نتیجه آن تشکیل ماتریس تناسب بود. شاخص خاک و اراضی از غیرفازی‌سازی ماتریس تناسب به روش T نرم مثلثی حاصل و کلاس‌های تناسب با توجه به آن تعیین و پهنه‌های هر کلاس مشخص گردید. اعتبارسنجی رویکرد فازی-دلفی برمبنای آزمون‌های آماری مرسوم صورت گرفت.
یافته‌ها: از مجموعه ویژگی‌های اراضی منطقه موردمطالعه با خاک‌های انتی‌سول و اینسپتی‌سول، 8 ویژگی (اقلیم، شیب، بافت، آهک، گچ، شوری، زهکشی و سیل‌گیری) براساس نظرات خبرگان به‌منظور ارزیابی تناسب اراضی انتخاب و ارزش‌گذاری شدند که از بین آن‌ها اقلیم بیشترین و گچ کمترین وزن را به ‌خود اختصاص دادند که صحت فرآیند توسط نرخ ناسازگاری 07/0 تأیید شد. نتایج ارزیابی‌های کیفی و کمّی تناسب کلاس‌های S1 تا S3 را برای تیپ بهره‌وری گندم آبی با محدودیت‌های شیب، شوری، بافت و گچ نشان داد. تفاوت کلاس واحد‌های اراضی در روش‌های کیفی و کمّی تنها در یک واحد اراضی مشاهده شد که در آن روش کمّی کلاس پایین‌تری داشت. طبق متوسط شاخص مدیریت 73/0، کلاس مدیریتی منطقه متوسط برآورد شد. مقادیر ضریب تبیین 91/0، خی‌دو 32/1، ریشه میانگین مربعات خطای 1/2 درصد و میانگین هندسی نسبت خطای 34/1در اعتبارسنجی روش فازی-دلفی حاصل شد.
نتیجه‌گیری: ایفای نقش کاربران اصلی اراضی زراعی همراه با بازخورد کنترل شده نظرات آن‌ها در ارزش‌گذاری ویژگی‌های دخیل در ارزیابی تناسب اراضی همراه با امکان تلفیق وزن ویژگی‌ها با امتیازات آن‌ها و نیز در نظرگیری کلاس‌های تناسب بینابین اهم مزایای مدل مورد مطالعه نسبت به روش‌های سنتی ارزیابی تناسب شناخته شدند که رویکرد فازی-دلفی را با توجه به برآورد مناسب از توان اراضی منطقه به عنوان روشی مناسب معرفی نمودند. دقت و صحت آماری بررسی شده رویکرد مذکور هر چند با قدری بیش برآوردی، تأیید کننده قابلیت اعتماد به آن در ارزیابی تناسب اراضی است. در کنار یافته‌های اصلی تحقیق، نتایج یکسان ارزیابی کیفی و کمّی تناسب با رویکرد مورد بحث، امکان اولویت‌بندی رفع محدودیت‌ها براساس یافته‌های جنبی و نیز توجه به کلاس تناسب اراضی در کنار شاخص مدیریت برای برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت آتی اراضی مواردی هستند که می‌توانند برای محققین و کارشناسان اجرایی مفید باشند. با این حال پیشنهاد به اجرای این مدل نوین در عرصه‌های مختلف برای انواع تیپ‌های بهره‌وری به‌منظور کشف سایر قابلیت‌های مدل و توصیه به استفاده از آن در سطح کلان می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Fuzzy-Delphy approach to a part of Horand lands suitability evaluation for irrigated wheat

نویسندگان [English]

  • Samira Rasouli 1
  • Hossein Rezaei 2
  • Moslem Servati 3
  • Ali Asghar Jafarzadeh 4
1 Soil Science and Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz- Iran
2 Soil Science and Engineering Department- Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz- Tabriz-IRAN
3 Shahid Bakeri High Education Center of Miandoab, Urmia University- Iran.
4 Soil Science and Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz- Iran
چکیده [English]

Background and Objectives: Land suitability evaluation is one of basic efforts to sustainable managements of any region. Shortcomings in traditional land suitability evaluation assessments have drawn the attention of this field users to use of artificial intelligence and multi-criteria decision making methods. Subsystems of mentioned methods alone or in the combination with each other were used to increase accuracy of evaluation, simplify of calculations and achievement of useful side results. Fuzzy-Delphi approach is one of discussed methods that in this study, its efficiency has been measured behind investigating of Horand region potential for irrigated wheat production.
Materials and Methods: In this study, 662 ha of lands in Horand region were selected in the form of 12 land units and after completing the climate, landscape and soil database, the Fuzzy-Delphi method was applied to qualitative and quantitative land suitability evaluation of irrigated wheat. The qualitative evaluation was done by land index determination and the quantitative one was completed based on predicted yield which calculated by combination of archived potential yield from Agro-ecologic method with soil index. In this regard, the Delphi method was used to select and determine weights of the factors which are involved in the evaluation based on the experts’ opinion and were validated by Kendall coefficient. The properties matrix which obtained from fuzzyization of land properties with kandel membership function were combined with weight matrix and leads to suitability matrix. The suitability zoning of the study area were identified according to suitability classes which were determined based on resulted soil and land index from defuzzification of suitability matrix with triangle Tnorm way. Validation of Fuzzy-Delphi method was done by conventional statistical tests.
Results: According to experts’ opinion, the 8 properties (Climate, slope, texture, calcium carbonate equivalent, gypsum, EC, drainage and flooding) of studied lands with Entisols and Inceptisols, were selected for land suitability evaluation that climate and gypsum have had maximum and minimum weight respectively, that its accuracy was confirmed by an incompatibility rate of 0.07. The conformed suitability evaluation showed S1 to S3 classes by qualitative and quantitative methods for irrigated wheat utilization type with limitation of slope, salinity, texture and gypsum. Difference of land units classes in qualitative and quantitative methods was seen only in one land unit which quantitative one take lower class. According to mean management index of 0.73, the middle management level was estimated for region. Chi-square value of 1.32, r2 0.91, RMSE 2.1% and GMER 1.34 obtained in the validation of Fuzzy-Delphi method.
Conclusion: Applying main agricultural lands users opinions in selecting and valuating land suitability evaluation parameters, combination of characterize weight with their rating and also considering intermediate classes, identified as the main advantages of the studied model over traditional methods that introduced the fuzzy-Delphi approach as an efficient method based on estimation of the land potential. The reliability of mentioned approach was confirmed by checked statistical accuracy and validity although with little over estimation. Beside main finding of this research work, coordination of qualitative and quantitative suitability evaluation with discussed approach, possibility of ranking the land limitation remove by sub data and also, pay attention to the land suitability class along with the management index for future land management planning are the cases that can be useful for researchers and executive experts. However, in order to find other capabilities of the model and recommending its use at the wide level, it is suggested to run this new model in different areas for various utilization types.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agro-ecological zoning
  • Horand
  • Land suitability
  • Multi-criteria decision making
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